gold market Archives

Gold Market Update – Nov 7, 2011

by David Levenstein

www.lakeshoretrading.co.za

Gold, a Hedge Against the Financial Predators of Our Society.

As far as I am concerned, corrupt governments that engage in reckless spending, banks and financial institutions that defraud, lie and deceive their own customers are all financial predators.  Governments and politicians are meant to serve the people and not themselves so when they spend money on their own personal indulgences, or in futile wars and aid programed which only enrich the leaders of impoverished nations, in effect they are squandering tax payer’s money. And, when governments debase their own currencies reducing the purchasing power of their national currency, they are impoverishing their middle-class who rely on their savings for retirement.

Yet, these very governments use all sorts of media tactics to take the blame from themselves and instead blame individuals.

Sometimes I wonder if what I see and hear on TV is for real. The amount of fraud going on with US banks is unbelievable, and now governments can’t even afford to service their own debts without having to resort to trickery such as suspending “mark-to-market” accounting rules and printing more money to buy their own bonds (effectively a Ponzi scheme). Frankly, all they are doing is perpetuating the chaos that is already occurring in the currency markets. Yet, the regulators simply make it more difficult and more frustrating for the average person to go about his daily banking business.

Prior to September 11, 2001, banking was so much easier and not everyone was regarded as a money launderer, drug dealer, arms dealer, or terrorist. But, thanks to the US government a new legislation introduced post 9/11, beguiled individuals around the world into believing that in an attempt to curtail the flow of funds to terrorist organizations, a new law “know your customer,” was necessary. Suddenly, individuals around the world were harassed by their banks. Even though they may have held accounts at their banks for many years, they were forced to provide all sorts of meaningless documentation. And, new account holders were given an even more difficult time.

Suddenly, all your hard earned cash was not wanted. And, heaven help you if you wanted to deposit a little more than a few thousand dollars in cash. Now you have to give an explanation as to why you have some money. This egregious act has little to do with money laundering and financing terrorism, and has more to do with governments expanding their network of tax payers who they can then pillage. Money launderers, criminals and terrorists can all provide proof or residence. And, someone depositing a few thousand dollars is hardly going to be a threat to world stability. Sure, I would understand if some red lights flashed if someone walked into a bank with several hundred million in cash, but not a paltry sum of say ten thousand dollars.

At a recent forum, OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurria congratulated the delegates and said.  “At a time of stalled economies and a crisis of politics, your collective tax work is a tangible example of countries moving together in a mutually beneficial direction that will help those trying to extricate themselves from the crisis. Governments have signed more than 700 agreements to exchange tax information. We know that 20 countries have taken advantage of this more transparent environment, putting in compliance initiatives which have already yielded €14 billion in additional revenues from more than 100 000 wealthy tax payers who had hidden assets offshore and that there’s more in the pipeline.”

In a frightening contrast, the US federal government’s debt increased by $203,368,715,583.63 in the month of October. This is more than 16 times the amount recovered from 100,000 tax payers and it happened in one month! At the end of September, the total national debt stood at $14,790,340,328,557.15 and by the end of October, it had risen to $14,993,709,044,140.78.

With so much effort and time Gurria proudly stated how much they had recovered from more than 100, 000 individuals. Yet, with less effort and time, a handful of governments, banks and financial institutions could save hundreds of billions never mind a few billion by simply stop squandering tax payer’s money. How many billions have been wasted in futile wars and how many billion in foreign aid have merely enriched the political leaders of those countries. But, if we add the billions governments have squandered in reckless spending; the amount recovered from 100,000 wealthy tax payers is miniscule. And, instead of threatening hard working individuals, organizations such as the OECD should be spending more time monitoring the activities of their own members’ governments.

Although the mission of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is to promote policies that will improve the economic and social well-being of people around the world, all it has done is make sure that world governments have unfettered access to financial transactions. Many governments even want to ban cash transactions over a certain amount. The OECD is funded by its member countries. National contributions are based on a formula which takes account of the size of each member’s economy. The largest contributor is the United States, which provides nearly 24% of the budget, followed by Japan. Is it any wonder why they do what they are told by the US government?

As this organization tries to cripple offshore banking and as individuals right to privacy is invaded by banks and financial institutions, theses very same companies, are the ones lying, cheating and deceiving customers. It is the retail customer that should be doing due diligence on these companies and not the other way around.

In recent years, the amount of bank fraud going on, particularly in the USA, is unbelievable. Well-known banks are being sued for securities fraud, mortgage backed securities fraud, insider dealing, and lying to clients… the list of claims is endless.

In June of 2007, Morgan Stanley agreed to pay $4.4 million to settle a class-action lawsuit with brokerage clients who bought precious metals and paid storage fees, when in fact it was alleged that Morgan Stanley wasn’t physically storing their gold and silver at all.

Last April, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) targeted Goldman Sachs in a civil fraud case. The lawsuit alleged Goldman sold investors a synthetic collateralized debt obligation (CDO) linked to the performance of certain mortgages without disclosing that John Paulson’s hedge fund, Paulson & Co., helped design the CDO (named Abacus) and was shorting it. As mortgage prices collapsed, the buyers of Abacus – including ACA Financial and German bank IKB – lost nearly $1 billion.

On July 15, 2010, Goldman settled with the SEC for $500 million. The bank neither admitted nor denied the allegations. It said the marketing materials for Abacus contained “incomplete” information.

JP Morgan Chase was fined $228 million for a bid-rigging scheme involving municipal bonds. The Chase ruling is the latest to come down in a series of fines involving a number of banks, including Bank of America and UBS. This scam that Chase, Bank of America and UBS were involved with was no different in any way, really, from old-school mafia-style bid-rigging scams.

What these banks did is they got together and carved up territory between them, arranging things so that they wouldn’t be bidding against each other in municipal debt auctions. That means the 18 different states involved in these 93-odd deals all got screwed out of the best prices, leaving the taxpayers in those places severely overcharged for their public borrowing.

A few months ago, the Federal Reserve slapped an $85 million fine on Wells Fargo & Co for allegedly steering borrowers into high-cost subprime mortgage loans even though they qualified for safer loans. The fine is the largest civil monetary penalty the Fed has ever assessed in a consumer-protection enforcement action, the central bank said.

Recently, Harry Markopolis the man who brought down Bernie Madoff’s $65 billion Ponzi scheme told King World News that, “Bank of New York is going to go down, Eric.  Between Bank of New York Mellon and State Street, these two institutions have stolen between $6 to $10 billion from tens of millions of Americans retirement savings accounts.  It’s been a hell of a crime spree for the bank, but now they are being brought to justice.” Markopolos has led the team that spearheaded this investigation from the beginning.  Harry and his team were the first to expose this fraud. Markopolos also told KWN, “The New York Attorney General filed suit on Tuesday (against Bank of New York Mellon) for stealing money from pension funds on currency transactions.  This theft has been from tens of millions of Americans, policemen, firemen, librarians, municipal workers, judges and the list goes on and on and they’ve been doing it for decades.

Just more than a week ago, Goldman Sachs Group was hit with a new $1.07 billion lawsuit for having allegedly sold risky debt that it expected would tumble in value to an Australian hedge fund, causing that fund to become insolvent. The lawsuit by the Basis Yield Alpha Fund alleges fraud, breach of contract and negligence, and seeks to recoup $67 million of losses plus $1 billion of punitive damages.

Last week,  MF Global, one of the largest Futures Commissions Merchants (FCM) in the world filed for bankruptcy. On Monday, The Federal Reserve Bank of New York said that it has suspended MF Global from conducting business with the bank.

Initially, MF Global couldn’t account for nearly $1 billion. That amount has since dropped to $700 million. Then, in statement released, all of the missing money was being held by JP Morgan. But, JP Morgan Chase denied this and said that like other banks, it has been holding MF funds and awaiting instructions from the bankrupt company’s trustee. The bank said the funds are not the missing client funds and the account has always been “transparent” to MF and its trustee. Regardless, something’s amiss.

A few years ago, MF Global took over the company REFCO, which was at the time the largest FCM in the world.  At one time, I was trying to establish an IB for REFCO in South Africa and they hit me with pages and pages of questions, all in the name of this ridiculous law – “know your customer”. They called it compliance.  At times I was so agitated at some of the plain dumb questions that I had to answer, I almost gave up with the idea. But here’s the kicker. After I finally passed their due diligence, REFCO filed for bankruptcy after their CEO had allegedly swindled the company of half a billion. That is when MF Global stepped in. Today, both REFCO and MF Global are bankrupt and a small company such as mine is still going strong. I only wish I had done due diligence on both these companies.

In 2008 a client of mine who lives in Indonesia suffered an enormous loss. His dream house burned down. When submitted his claim to his insurance company which was AIG, they refused to pay him. He then took legal action against AIG, and even his attorneys were totally ineffective. He then submitted an article about his ordeal to one of the newspapers in Indonesia. Before publishing his article the newspaper contacted AIG for their side of the story. The article did not go into print because AIG eventually settled 80% of his claim. This ordeal took my client 16 months. But when AIG was in trouble, the US FED bailed them out in a matter of days or was it hours.

I could continue, but suffice to say, the best thing any individual can do is to protect their wealth by investing in precious metals, in particular gold and silver. There is no third-party risk so you never have to worry about being cheated. Provided you have your core holding kept somewhere safe and preferably away from any bank, when the global monetary system collapses, you will be fully protected. Since it seems that governments are not going to change their monetary policy we can expect them to print more money. The consequence of this action will be a decline in value of these respective currencies and your wealth will slowly disintegrate… the purchasing power of your money held on deposit at the bank will become worth less. For centuries, gold and silver have acted as a hedge against the declining values of these fiat currencies, and if history repeats again, the outcome will be the same.  We are already seeing, governments imposing more controls on the flows of money, increased currency wars, and unstable currencies. And, it seems that the current state of the global monetary system is not improving but deteriorating. And, as I have been stating for years, this is why everyone should own some gold and silver. It is also important to keep some of your assets away from the main-stream banking system and use the facilities offered by offshore banks.

Act now, before it is too late. Add gold and silver to your investment portfolios.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

There are some positive signs developing in the price of gold, mainly good support above $1700 as well as $1750. Also, the price of gold has pushed through the 50 day MA. I expect prices to breach $1800 an ounce shortly.

By David Levenstein

****

About the author: David Levenstein is a leading expert on investing in precious metals. Although he began trading silver through the LME in 1980, over the years he has dealt with gold, silver, platinum and palladium. He has traded and invested in bullion, bullion coins, mining shares, exchange traded funds, as well as futures for his personal account as well as for clients.

His articles and commentaries on precious metals have been published in dozens of newspapers, publications and websites both locally as well as internationally. He has been a featured guest on numerous radio and TV shows, and is a regular guest on JSE Direct, a premier radio business channel in South Africa. The largest gold refinery in the world use his daily and weekly commentaries on gold.

David has lived and worked in Johannesburg, Los Angeles, London, Hong Kong, Bangkok, and Bali.

For more information go to: www.lakeshoretrading.co.za

Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but there is no guarantee as to completeness or accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are statements of our judgment as of this date and are subject to change without notice.

A Port in the Debt Storm

Clearly a reckless federal government is good for gold – or more accurately, our collective can kickers in Washington, DC, are very bad for the dollar. Take a look at the very telling graph below.

”"

Contrary to the disinformation campaign of Wall Street, and their Federal Reserve sponsored economists, gold is not a bubble. Central banks are now net buyers of gold, and not because of tradition, as Mr. Bernanke would have you believe.

They are buying gold because it is the foundation of the global monetary system. It is the only form of money that can extinguish debt. Paper money that is piled up in foreign reserves is simply an IOU that may or may not be good in the future. Gold held in foreign reserves has no such counterparty risk.

The bottom line is that we are heading into a period where the seemingly endless expansion of paper, be it debt instruments or fiat currencies, can no longer be sustained. Short term machinations aside, the relative value of gold will continue to increase until the unsustainable levels of debt have been cleared from the system.

Gold recognizes the fact that our debt levels have passed the point of no return. The current “debates” over the debt ceiling in the US and bailouts for the PIIGS in Europe are just noise. In the coming storm of debt destruction, wealth will continue to seek safe harbor in the form of gold.

Original Source: http://resourceinvestor.com/News/2011/7/Pages/A-Port-in-the-Debt-Storm.aspx

From Richard Russell in Dow Theory Letters:

This nation is so riddled with lies and corruption, sometimes I wonder how the U.S. has survived the many centuries since the Founding Fathers gave us our great Constitution.

No wonder Fed Chief Bernanke fought so hard to keep the Fed’s lending a secret. I just read in Rolling Stone magazine a story entitled “The Real Housewives of Wall Street.” It seems that the Fed loaned bailout money of $220 million to the wives of two Morgan Stanley bigwigs. After his wife got a big taxpayers bailout John Mack, CEO of Morgan Stanley, bought a $15 million home equipped with a 12-car garage. Outrageous!

When you think about it, it’s no wonder that Wall Street and the Fed hate gold. Gold exists outside the system. The Fed can’t manipulate or create gold the way they do Federal Reserve Notes. When gold rises, as it has been doing, it hoists a red flag over Wall Street, the Fed, and the economy. Surging gold tells the world that something is terribly wrong. All the lies, corruption, and secrets of the Fed and the politicians can’t erase the dire message of gold.

Gold is the protector and refuge of the common man. No wonder all the recent record highs in gold remain unreported by the media.

 

Source:  http://www.thedailycrux.com/content/7477/Richard_Russell

Fundamental Review by Warren Bevan

by Warren Bevan

Fundamental Review

China has reportedly imported up to 200 tonnes in the last three months which would be roughly 8% of yearly worldwide Gold production. The heavy importing was said to have been in advance of Chinese New Year, which began February 3rd. Usually red envelopes are stuffed with cash and exchanged during the Chinese New Year, but apparently Gold is being put into the envelopes this year.

It’s not my fault that China is taking over the world in many respects, so please don’t berate me with hate mail. The facts are they are smart, have a long-term plan and are executing it. Western governments let it happen with their debt based system.

It doesn’t matter if you agree with me on this or not, it’s fact and the sooner you understand it the better off and more prepared you’ll be. No point in being stubborn. Look at the facts honestly and decide for yourself.

What I’m working around to is that while the Chinese are far from perfect, they have done a lot more right lately than the West. They are buying Gold as quickly as they can at whatever price they can. I suggest you follow their lead in terms of Gold buying, whether you like their reasons for buying it or not.

A report was received recently where it was said that the Chinese Central Bank is going to increase their Gold reserves, and Silver as well. It was said that they would be using the recent weakness as an opportunity to buy both metals. It doesn’t surprise me to hear this about Gold, and I may not have even mentioned it here. But to hear this about Silver is stunning.

Many societies, including China, have been on Silver standards in the past, and while it is industrial, it is also precious and can be argued as to have many of the same monetary values and features as does Gold. In the past Gold was used more for wealth storage, while Silver was used in day to day transactions due to it’s cheaper price.

It’s beyond what I can put into words how positive this is for Silver, if true. I guarantee if China begins buying Silver as reserves, many other countries will follow.

It’s no secret that I’ve been much more bullish Silver than Gold for years and my portfolio reflects that tremendously. Last year was amazing to say the least. And better years are ahead!

$200 Silver may seem cheap in a few years. No joke.

Turkey’s January Gold imports also rose to 11.12 tonnes of the good stuff. That is quite a bit, and a trend that should continue. January 2010 only saw 60 kg imported!

Three banks failed this SuperBowl weekend and joined 2011’s list of biggest losers. Once again, they were announced after all was said and done for the week, late Friday evening.

Ben Bernanke issued a stern warning that if the debt limit ceiling failed to be raised promptly there could be catastrophic consequences. This is true. And there is no practical solution to a continued debt limit increase which will eventually lead to the failure of the United States Dollar as we know it.

His warning came during his appearance at the National Press Club where he told so many lies that I won’t even go into it . I know I woke up the next day to glorious headlines of peace, love and prosperity, all lies if you even bothered to read past the headlines, let alone dig into the real numbers and truths.

Forget about it. Just buy some physical Gold, Silver, or nickels and sit back and ignore as much of it as you can.

The national debt in the US jumped an impressive $105.8 billion in January alone. That’s about $3.14 billion per day. But if you break it down it’s only about $10 a day for every man women and child in the US. The median US family size is 2.59 so it’s only an extra $803 per average family per month added to the national debt at this rate.

No big deal. Who doesn’t have an extra $800 a month to throw around right?

I know I don’t!

My word that is a lot of cash, and it’s likely to only grow over time. Stop the madness!

Apparently scams out of Sierra Leon still occur in regards to “cheap gold”. Investors actually trusted these scammers and handed them large sums of money for cheap gold which was never delivered or only contained copper shaving. I get many emails from scammers every single day, most from small African nations.

**Note. If you’ve sent me an email starting with Dear Sir, or Kind regards from Africa and you didn’t get one back I may have deleted on first site out of habit!

Gold is not cheap. The cheapest way to buy Gold is on the futures market. Other than that, you have to look at the charts and look for good entry points and shop around for the smallest premium. That is the only way to get a “deal” on Gold.

Silver sales have been soaring lately. 1 oz silver coins have broken sales records in January at the US Mint. Sales of 6.42 million coins were 50% more than any other year in the US Mint’s 26 years of published data. At least they have the Silver so far.

The second highest monthly sales ever just occurred in November 2010, then 2010 supply basically ran out in December so we could well be at the start of back to back record breaking sales months.

It won’t take too many of those types of months until we hear the “we ran out of blanks” excuse. Get the metals while you can because there will be a day when paper price and physical price has a huge spread. There is already a spread, but it’s small compared to what’s coming.

Here’s a great one to finish on and consider. A rich investor bought twenty million nickels in order to profit from the coming fiasco.

Anything that will hold value, including small coins with metal content, is a good investment. Apparently the nickel is actually worth $0.07 today and I’ll bet you a nickel, a nickel will be worth even more over the next few years.

Enjoy the Super Bowl and the coming week. It should be a great one.

Until next week take care and thank you for reading.

Warren Bevan

Original Source: http://www.kitco.com/ind/Bevan/feb072011.html

The Case For Gold Today

The establishment argument against gold comes down to the statement that it is a collectible that earns no yield.  Art, rare coins, stamps and gold and silver bullion do not earn a yield.  Stocks, bonds and real estate earn yields, so the prudent investor should focus on these assets rather than gold or precious metals.

First, let us examine a hole in this argument.  Let us look at bonds and other fixed income investments.  The best instrument here is T-bills because they are virtually risk-free (not counting the risk from the depreciation of the currency).  A study of the yield on T-bills going back to 1933 (which is the beginning of the modern monetary system) shows that the yield paid on T-bills bought at almost any time over the past 75 years has been completely eaten up by the depreciation of the currency.  For example, right now you can buy a T-bill yielding 1%.  But the (official) Consumer Price Index is rising by 4% per year.  So at the end of 12 months time, you receive $1,010 (from your original $1,000 investment) and can buy goods which at the start of the 12 month period had cost $970.  In reality, your money has shrunk in value and you have received negative interest.  It hasn’t been this bad all the time, but the average over the past 75 years shows a return of (very close to) 0% real interest.

This eliminates T-bills as an establishment investment, and it pretty much eliminates any riskier fixed income investment as well.  Because all you are receiving beyond the T-bill rate is a small risk premium.  Yes, you get some extra return, but you have to take extra risk.  The game is not worth the candle.  And if you try so-called inflation protected Treasury securities, they are only protected against the “inflation” reported in the official Consumer Price Index.  Interestingly, it was right at the time that these were introduced that the Bureau of Labor Statistics began to introduce fraudulent statistics into the CPI so that it no longer truly measures the rate of price increase in our society.

What is needed during this period when the U.S. currency is depreciating (as measured against goods) is an economic good which protects you against currency depreciation and which also has a yield.  Stocks have yields because (most of) the companies have earnings.  Real estate usually has a yield (unless it is raw land).  In both of these cases, it is possible to protect yourself against the depreciation of the currency and still earn a return on your capital.

So far the establishment argument is looking good.  Both stocks and real estate, like gold, can protect you against the depreciation of the currency.  But unlike gold they pay a yield.  The problem with this argument, however, is that it is true only for the long term.

Starting with the Kennedy tax cut of 1963, budget deficits and the creation of money became the operating policy for both political parties.  Indeed, the (official) Consumer Price Index has risen every year since that date.  However, different goods react differently to the easing of credit and the printing of money.  The result of this has been the development of what I call the commodity pendulum.  First, commodities lag behind the rise in other prices and become undervalued.  Then they play catch up and rise rapidly.  When they go too high the cycle starts again.  For example, commodities were undervalued in 1971 and dramatically outperformed stocks through the decade of the ‘70s.  In the ‘80s and ‘90s, the situation was reversed; commodities declined, and stocks rose.  Starting early in the new century commodities were once again undervalued and began another rise, and this will soon lead to large scale declines in bonds and stocks.  That is, the first part of this century will be a repeat of the 1970s.

So although the establishment point is correct for the very long term, it is too long for practical trading.  Yes, stocks can give you protection against the depreciation of the currency as well as yield.  But that did not help the stock investor from 1966 to 1982 because he lost 70% of his capital in real terms.

The argument for gold now is the same as it was in the early 1970s.  Gold, and other commodities, are coming off a giant oversold condition.  Over the ‘70s, gold multiplied by a factor of 25 times.  What will happen during this swing of the pendulum cannot, as yet, be predicted.  But it is likely to be quite similar.

Take the establishment supporter who bought stocks in 1966.  It was the recognized “wisdom” of that day to buy “good, sound stocks for the long pull.”  They laughed at the foolish gold bugs buying gold stocks with the price of the metal at $35/oz.  Gold, after all, was a collectible.  This situation is repeating in our day.  The same forces which pushed gold upward then are pushing it upward now.  The ethanol bill plays the role of the Russian wheat deal.  The establishment type who buys “good, sound stocks for the long pull” today is quite likely to sit through a 70% decline in real terms over the next dozen or so years.

We all know what the establishment did in the 1970s.  When gold raced over $800 in January 1980, they said, “We will pretend that this whole affair never happened.  It is too embarrassing to admit that we were wrong and the gold bugs were right.”  Those who do not learn from history are condemned to repeat it.  And repeat it (the seventies) they are.

But when the commodity pendulum is finally over (and that will be quite some time in the future), and the cycle is ready to switch back in the other direction, when the day comes that gold is overvalued and stocks undervalued (similar to 1980-1982), I will be perfectly happy to get out of gold and buy stocks again.

But as I remember the advice of the economic establishment over the past generation, they were as bullish as they could possibly be on stocks in 1966.  And then they turned as bearish as the gloom of night in 1982.  I am confident that they will do the same thing on this second swing of the commodity pendulum.

Thank you for your interest.

Howard S. Katz

****

Is gold the true store of value in uncertain times? Will the impending flood of inflation destroy my financial house? How can I protect my wealth with gold and precious metals? These are the type of questions addressed in issues of The One-handed Economist. Subscriptions are available for $300/year online at www.thegoldspeculator.com, or for $290 ($10 cash discount) by sending your check to The One-handed Economist, 614 Nashua St. #142, Milford, NH 03055.

The Most Perfect Medium

By Howard Katz – 10/11/2010

The precious metals markets moved into high gear last week with silver up 4.5% and new highs in gold and the HUI. Meanwhile the Wall Street Journal explained:

“Driving the recent spate of [currency] flows has been anticipation that the Federal Reserve will restart its efforts to stimulate growth through purchases of government debt that inject more money into the banking system – a practice known as quantitative easing or ‘QE.’”

“Easy Money Churns Emerging Markets,” by Alex Frangos,
WSJ, 10-8-10, p. A-10.

Sad, sad news in the daily paper this week.  We live in a world where the leaders of our country, and every country in the world, believe that there is nothing more to the production of wealth than to simply create, out of nothing, the money which symbolizes it.  The Journal again:

“Investors who had been betting on the dollar switched their wagers in the past few weeks as they grew convinced the Fed will pump still more money into financial markets to bolster the struggling U.S. economy – essentially diluting the value of the dollar.”

“Dollar’s Fall Roils World,” by Tom Lauricella, WSJ 10-8-10,
p. A-1.

For several years, we have watched as the precious metals markets have told us of a truly amazing advance.  Since their lows in the last century, both gold and silver have multiplied by a factor of more than 5.  Both metals have traced out powerful up trends with repeated bullish chart patterns. And now we know the answer why.  The Government of the United States, in the person of Ben Bernanke (and his fellow officials at the Federal Reserve), is trying to reduce the people of America to medieval serfs, to steal their wealth and to give it to the likes of Goldman Sachs (and a few other institutions which have obtained their great wealth not by producing it but by having the Government steal it for them).

The mechanism of this historic theft is counterfeiting.  Indeed, the government has set up the counterfeiting department (the Federal Reserve System).  It prints money and gives this new money to its favorites (who respond via bribes disguised as campaign donations and job offers).

But as we gold bugs have been arguing, the printing of money causes the depreciation of the currency, and this must cause all prices (denominated in that currency) to rise. And this is taking the form of a general increase in commodity prices, itself led by the precious metals.

adly, America was once governed by wiser men.  In 1816, Thomas Jefferson commented:

“We are now taught to believe that legerdemain tricks upon paper can produce as solid wealth as hard labor in the earth. It is vain for common sense to urge that nothing can produce but nothing; that it is an idle dream to believe in a philosopher’s stone which is to turn everything into gold, and to redeem man from the original sentence of his Maker, ‘in the sweat of his brow shall he eat his bread.’” –Thomas Jefferson to Charles Yancey, 1816. ME 14:381

Jefferson was talking about the Second Bank of the United States. He and James Madison had abolished the First Bank of the United States in 1811, but Madison backed down and allowed a second bank in 1816. This bank was later destroyed by Andrew Jackson and Martin van Buren in 1836 (as a result of Jackson’s overwhelming victory in the 1832 election). It was this battle against the second bank which gave birth to the (real) Democratic Party.

If the Democratic Party was born to destroy the central bank and if the Democrats hold power today, then why is it we have a central bank which keeps on printing more and more money? Indeed, in the easing of 2008 we knew that we were being robbed for the benefit of Goldman Sachs and other Wall Street Houses which had accumulated toxic assets. But here in late 2010 we are not even allowed to know who will receive the wealth which is being taken from us.

Once Jackson had destroyed the Second Bank of the United States, the U.S. began a period of economic growth unprecedented in human history. A cornucopia of wealth flowed such as mankind had never seen. The human lifespan increased. A continent was tamed. One after the other, new machines and devices for the improvement of people’s lives poured out of the factories of the nation.

It should be noted that all this was accomplished without the hint of rising prices. From 1793 to 1933, the prices of basic wholesale goods came out the same. For most of this period, there was no word for unemployment for the simple reason that unemployment was so low that nobody noticed it, and nobody spoke of it.

As Bernanke made clear his intention to counterfeit yet another round of money (at this point no one knows how much), the dollar collapsed on the world markets. It collapsed against gold and silver.  It collapsed against the grains. And, as the above chart shows, it even collapsed against the other paper currencies.  (All of these paper currencies are going down, but the dollar is going down faster.)  Chartists will recognize the pattern which has been formed as a head and shoulders top, and the price objective point is 72.

What Jefferson was saying was that the issue of paper money could not create real wealth. Wealth is (scarce) goods which satisfy a human need. In simple language, wealth is stuff. President Obama’s and President Bush’s economic advisors do not know this. They keep saying that the printing of money will create stuff (“stimulate the economy”). One repeatedly hears the theory that the printing of money will so dramatically stimulate the economy that the extra goods thus created will cause a net decline in prices.

This theory (of a net decline in prices) is repeated throughout the financial world. Every time this forecast is made it proves false. But the people who hear the forecast have short memories. They forget that the last time they heard the same forecast it was also wrong. Ditto, ditto the time before that. They do not look at the facts. They look at the impressive credentials of the con artists who are deceiving them. And so they believe, again and again and again.

The important thing to understand about this confidence game is that it only devours its own.  To be protected against it, all you have to do is to see reality as it is.  The printing of paper money does not create wealth. Jefferson again.

“Specie is the most perfect medium because it will preserve its own level; because, having intrinsic and universal value, it can never die in our hands, and it is the surest resource of reliance in time of war.” –Thomas Jefferson to John Wayles Eppes, 1813. ME 13:430

If you wish to be protected against the depreciation of our currency by Ben Bernanke, then specie (gold or silver) is the most perfect medium.  Any real good will provide protection. However, gold and silver have been chosen as money for certain reasons of convenience. They are the easiest to hold and to exchange with others.  They have been used as money for 2500 years, and they are the only legal monies under the United States Constitution.  As Ben Bernanke destroys the (Federal Reserve note) dollar, all real goods will rise in price, and gold and silver will lead (are leading) the way. The people who believe the establishment and plan for “deflation” will be destroyed. The people who believe Thomas Jefferson will be protected.

Thank you for your interest.

Howard S. Katz

****

To assist the good people with the technical details of speculating in gold or silver and in general dealing with the problems created by a paper currency, I publish a fortnightly (every two weeks) newsletter, the Gold Bug.  To subscribe, go to my web site, www.thegoldspeculator.com and press the Pay Pal button ($300).  Or you may send $290 to The One-handed Economist, 614 Nashua St. #122, Milford, N.H. 03055 ($10 cash discount).  Our most recent issue was dated Oct. 1, 2010.

How To Make 120 Percent In One Month Trading Gold Stocks

While most investors are fretting about unemployment and weak housing reports, a bonanza is happening in one tiny area of the market…

It’s an area that doesn’t worry about housing reports… and it hasn’t been hampered at all by the 6 percent decline in stocks since April. It’s an area that maybe one investor out of a thousand follows.

That area is “junior” gold stocks… and the returns this sector is generating right now are extraordinary.

These “junior golds” are the bloodhounds of the gold business. They are tiny companies (typically under $250 million market cap) that scour the world looking for the next big deposit of precious metals. When one of them finds a huge deposit, shares can absolutely skyrocket.

For example, in 2005 Esperanza Silver made an amazing discovery called San Luis. And with each hole the company drilled, it found more gold. Here’s what happened to the stock…

Esperanza Silver Corp.

As you can see from the chart, shares of Esperanza soared from $0.25 in summer of 2005 to more than $4 by early 2007. That’s 1,500 percent in just over 18 months.

Believe it or not, this kind of climb happens often. A good discovery (gold or otherwise) blows the lid off these shares. Here are some other recent examples:

  • Ventana Gold went from $0.14 a share to $12 in 12 months.
  • Canplat jumped from $0.27 a share to $5.28 in six months.
  • Hathor rose from $0.47 a share to $4.34 in seven months.
  • Underworld Resources went from $0.13 a share to $2.64 in six months.

The junior gold industry exists because major mining companies do little of their own exploration. Big mining companies prefer to let thousands of these tiny companies do the work of looking for big deposits. Then they simply swoop in and buy the small company.

To give you an idea of the extreme difference in the size of juniors versus large miners, consider a junior gold stock with a $30 million market cap versus giant Newmont Mining, which sports a $30 billion market cap. Newmont is 1,000 times bigger.

Now that gold is well above $1,000 per ounce, large gold stocks are finally enjoying a solid increase in cash flows… and shares in big gold companies like Newmont are up 15 percent 30 percent this year (while stocks in general are flat). But the juniors are ringing up much larger gains…

For example, last October I recommended buying shares of a tiny gold exploration firm called ATAC Resources to readers of Phase 1 Investor, an exclusive trading service. ATAC has found a potentially huge gold deposit in Canada’s Yukon Territory. Recent drill results have been positive. This news helped send ATAC up nearly 120 percent in August… and up 540 percent since my recommendation.

ATAC isn’t an isolated case, either. Another gold stock we’ve held in the Phase 1 portfolio is tiny AuEx Ventures, a gold prospector like ATAC. A potential buyout sent AuEx shares up 80 percent in August. Many other junior golds are up 30 percent to 50 percent in the past few months.

These extraordinary gains are an example of what can happen when folks get just a little interested in this sector. As legendary mining speculator Doug Casey often points out, the gold stock sector is tiny compared to most other sectors… so if there’s a big rush to own gold stocks, “it will be like trying to siphon the contents of the Hoover Dam through a garden hose.” Since folks are interested in buying all things related to gold in general, the juniors are really flying, thanks to their small size.

I can’t guarantee you these sorts of gains will continue all year. All I can say is gold is the strongest uptrend anywhere in the world right now. It’s a trend that benefits from worries over government debt and the soundness of paper currencies. I can also tell you uptrends in gold stocks can last longer than most people would believe.

That’s why I recommend all investors become interested in gold stocks right now — and stay interested in the coming years.

Good investing,

Matt Badiali
Editor, S&A Resource Report

P.S. While super-small junior golds are simply too small to recommend to a large audience like readers of my S&A Resource Report, we are still making extraordinary gains in gold and silver. I’ve prepared a short video that details how you can get in on these gains right now. Click here to watch it.

$2,500 Gold Could Easily Result in $178.50 Silver – Here’s Why!
By Lorimer Wilson
Sep 20 2010 11:49AM
www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com

More than 95 respected economists, academics, analysts and market commentators are of the firm opinion that gold will go to $2,500 and beyond before the parabolic peak is reached. In fact, the majority (55) think a price of $5,000 or more -even as high as $15,000 – is actually more likely! As such, just imagine what is in store for silver given its historical price relationship with gold!

Precious metal bull markets have 3 distinct demand-driven stages and we are now quickly approaching or perhaps even in the very early part of the last stage which occurs when the general public around the world starts investing in gold and this deluge of capital into gold causes it to escalate dramatically (i.e. go parabolic) in price.

Gold

Gold went up 24% in 2009 and is up 16% YTD and, as such, there are no shortage of prognosticators who see gold going parabolic reminiscent of 1979 when gold rose 289.3% in the course of just over a year (from a $216.55 closing price on Jan. 1, 1979 to a closing price of $843 per ounce barely a year later on Jan. 21, 1980) and 128% higher in a late-1979 parabolic blow-off of just under 11 weeks! A 289% increase in the price of gold from $1275 would put gold at $4,960. (More on what that might mean for the future price of silver is analyzed below.) That being the case what appear on the surface to be rather outlandish projections of what the bull market in gold will top out at don’t seem quite so far-fetched. (For a complete list of the economists, academics, market analysts and financial commentators who maintain that gold will go parabolic to $2,500 -$15,000 in the near future please see:

http://www.munknee.com/2010/09/5000-gold-bandwagon-now-includes-these-55-analysts-got-gold/

Silver

Silver has proven itself, time and again, to be a safe haven for investors during times of economic uncertainty and, as such, with the current economy in difficulty the silver market has become a flight to quality investment vehicle along with gold. The 49% increase in silver in 2009 (and 23% YTD) attests to that in spades. During the last parabolic phase for silver in 1979/80 it went from a low of $5.94 on January 2nd, 1979 to a close of $49.45 in early January, 1980 which represented an increase of 732.5% in just over one year. Such a percentage increase from the current price of almost $21 would represent a future parabolic top price of $175. (For what that might mean for the future price of gold see the analysis below.) Frankly, such prices seem impossible in practical terms but that is what the numbers tell us.

Gold:Silver Ratio

The current gold:silver ratio has been range-bound between 70:1 and 60:1 for quite some time which is way out of whack with the historical relationship between the two precious metals. It begs the question: “Is now the perfect time to buy silver instead of the much more expensive gold metal?”

How both gold and silver perform, in and of themselves, does not tell the complete picture by a long shot, however. More important is the price relationship – the correlation – of one to the other over time which is called the gold:silver ratio. Based on silver’s historical correlation r-square with gold of approximately 90 – 95% silver’s daily trading action almost always mirrors, and usually amplifies, underlying moves in gold. With significant increases in the price of gold expected over the next few years even greater increases are anticipated in silver’s price movement in the months and years to come because silver is currently seriously undervalued relative to gold as the following historical relationships attest.

Let’s look at the gold:silver ratio from several different perspectives:

- Over the past 125 years the mean gold:silver ratio (i.e. 50% above and 50% below) has been 45.69 ounces of silver to 1 ounce of gold.
- In the last 25 years (since 1985) the mean gold:silver ratio has increased to 45.69:1
- The present gold:silver ratio has been range-bound between 60:1 and 70:1 (61.3:1 as of September 17/10).
- Interestingly, during the build-up to the parabolic blow-off in 1979/80 silver outpaced gold going up 732.5% vs. gold’s 289.3% causing the ratio to drop from 38:1 in January 1979 to 13.99:1 at the parabolic peak for both metals in January,1980.

Let’s now look at the various price levels for gold and the various silver:gold ratios mentioned above one by one and see what conclusions we can draw.
First let’s use the Sept. 17, 2010 price of $1276.50 for gold and apply the various gold:silver ratios mentioned above and see what they do for the potential % increase in, and price of, silver.

Gold @ $1276.50 using the current 61.3:1 gold:silver ratio puts silver at $20.82 (Sept. 17/10)
Gold @ $1276.50 using the above 45.69:1 gold:silver ratio puts silver at $27.94 (i.e. +34.2%)
Gold @ $1276.50 using the above 13.99:1 gold:silver ratio puts silver at $91.24 (i.e. +338.2%)

Now let’s apply the projected potential parabolic peaks of $2,500, $5,000 and $10,000 to the various gold:silver ratios and see what they suggest is the parabolic top for silver.

@ $2,500 Gold

Gold @ $2,500 using the gold:silver ratio of 61:1 puts silver at $41
Gold @ $2,500 using the gold:silver ratio of 45:1 puts silver at $55.50
Gold @ $2,500 using the gold:silver ratio of 14:1 puts silver at $178.50

Before we go any further the above analyses bears closer scrutiny. In paragraph four above it was noted that “During the last parabolic phase for silver in 1979/80 it went from a low of $5.94 on January 2nd, 1979 to a close of $49.45 in early January, 1980 which represented an increase of 732.5% in just over one year.” Such a percentage increase from the current price of almost $21 would represent a future parabolic top price of $175.

It is interesting to note that the above $175 is almost identical to the $178.50 that would result from a reversion to the mean in the gold:silver ratio with gold at $2,500. For the gold bugs who believe that gold is going to go even higher it can only mean a very much higher price for silver as the analyses below suggest.

@ $5,000 Gold

Gold @ $5,000 using the gold:silver ratio of 61.1 puts silver at $82
Gold @ $5,000 using the gold:silver ratio of 45:1 puts silver at $111
Gold @ $5,000 using the gold:silver ratio of 14:1 puts silver at $357

@ $10,000 Gold

Gold @ $10,000 using the gold:silver ratio of 61:1 puts silver at $164
Gold @ $10,000 using the gold:silver ratio of 45:1 puts silver at $222
Gold @ $10,000 using the gold:silver ratio of 14:1 puts silver at $714!!

From the above it seems that, any way we look at it, physical silver is currently undervalued compared to gold bullion and is in position to generate substantially greater returns than investing in gold bullion.

Summary

History will look back at the artificially high gold:silver ratio of the past century as an anomaly, caused by the dollar bubble and the world being deceived into believing that fiat currencies are real money, when in fact they are all an illusion. This fiat currency experiment will end badly in a currency crisis and when that happens, as it surely will, gold will go parabolic and silver along with it but even more so as the gold:silver ratio adjusts itself to a more historical correlation. The wealthiest people in the future will be those who put 10% to 15% (or perhaps more – much more!) of their portfolio dollars into physical silver today and were smart enough to research and pick the best silver mining/royalty stocks and warrants to maximize their returns.

Indeed, while gold’s meteoric rise still has room to run, silver’s run is yet to get started. As such, it certainly appears evident that now is the time to buy all things silver.

Please Note:

- This is a one-of-a-kind article which no doubt will get a great deal of attention and be posted on a large number of other financial sites and blogs. This is encouraged but to avoid copyright infringement the author’s name must be included with a hyperlink to the original article.

Lorimer Wilson
September 19, 2010

****

Lorimer Wilson is the Editor of both www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com (a sight/site for sore eyes and inquisitive minds) and www.munKNEE.com (a site consisting of edited excerpts of the internet’s most informative articles on money matters).  He can be reached at editor@munknee.com

Original Source:  http://www.kitco.com/ind/Wilson/sep202010.html

By Brian Hunt
Saturday, May 8, 2010

On February 18, 2009 the Financial Times published one of the most important articles nobody read.
The article’s headline was Gold primed to become “mania asset.”

The gist of the article was something I’ve been telling people for a long time: Gold – more so than any asset right now – has the potential to experience a mania phase… one like we saw in Internet stocks from 1997 through 2000.
A mania phase is a period in an asset’s lifecycle marked by leaps of 10% or 20% in a month… 100% or 300% in a year… and 500% or more over the course of several years. Get in early with a big position on a mania phase, and you’ll make a fortune. Remember one Internet-mania darling, JDS Uniphase, climbed more than 30-fold in about two years… which would have turned a stake of $20,000 into $640,000.
As that little-read article mentioned, an asset must have one key ingredient to enter mania phase: It must have the “new era” factor… a set of conditions folks can point to and say, “This time is different… The old, conventional methods of valuing assets are useless in this case.”
Take Internet stocks. In the late ’90s, Wall Street analysts chucked classic valuation measures – like price-to-cash flow and price-to-book – out the window. The Internet was growing too fast for these old measures, they figured. Instead, they used crazy metrics like web traffic (and often pure fantasy) to justify valuations. Companies with little chance of turning a profit sported market caps of hundreds of millions of dollars simply because they had good stories… and because that time was “different.”
Now let’s get to gold. As we’ve noted many times in DailyWealth, you can make a good case that this time is different. Never before has the nation with the world’s reserve paper currency – which is backed by nothing but faith in a bankrupt government – promised so much to so many people (Social Security, Obamacare, unlimited military commitment).
We’re funding many of these promises with borrowed money… so crushing interest payments are on the way. The U.S. government could pay as much as 20% of its tax revenue to service the national debt in just three years. Imagine working your tail off just to pay the interest on your credit cards.
For a picture of what could happen, consider that Europe – which in aggregate has made the same crazy promises… and is under a similar debt load – is watching its paper currency union experience a slow-motion train wreck. The chart below shows what gold’s action looks like in the eyes of a European. It’s looking a lot like a mania phase.
How high can gold go? I can’t say. Nobody can.
Despite what many gurus will tell you, we simply cannot properly value gold. It’s not a stock, so you can’t say, “I’ll pay 10 times cash flow for this.” It’s not a rental property, so you can’t say, “I’ll buy this for eight times annual rent.” Gold’s chief use isn’t in the manufacturing process, like copper and iron ore.
Nope… gold is the odd man out in the asset family.
Gold represents real, intrinsic wealth. Greece can’t debase it. The U.S. government cannot debase it. There’s no way to know what people will pay for gold in a big crisis. This is precisely the reason it is a candidate for mania phase. People can tell themselves, “This time is different. It’s a new era of currency crisis, so gold can and should trade for $2,000… $3,000… or $6,000 an ounce.”
I’m no “the world is going to hell in a handcart” guy. I simply look around for assets with extraordinary potential to rise. I’m indifferent to whether it’s gold, stocks, homebuilders, uranium, or Malaysian palm oil.
I’m not saying a gold mania will happen next week… or even six months from now. I actually believe gold needs to pull back and “catch its breath.” I am saying gold is an asset folks can justify paying any price for.
The same sort of analysts who claimed the Nasdaq would go to 50,000 are the same sort of analysts who will claim gold will go to $25,000 an ounce. The sober among us will be shouted down… because “this time is different.”
This is the chief requirement of a mania. It is in place for gold.
Good investing,
Brian Hunt

by Tyler Durden

The Andrew Maguire LBMA whistleblower story just refuses to go away, and it is about time someone from the mainstream media (yes, we know you read us constantly) finally picked up on this massive expose about the decades of fraud and manipulation in the commodities market, with a focus on gold and silver. Don’t worry, the Wall Street ad revenue sources you may lose from highlighting this “must read” story will be more than offset by the increased readership you will gain. Today we have the latest segment in this saga, courtesy once again of Eric King who interviews GATA members Bill Murphy, Chris Powell and Adrian Douglas.As is pointed out in the interview, “The CFTC, on the public record, has been shown to have known in advance of massive market manipulation, and have done nothing.” Isn’t this the same reason why Markopolos called SEC the biggest bunch of idiots in existence vis-a-vis their performance in the Madoff debacle? It is time someone big blew this up finally. Perhaps this will explain why it never get mainstream attention: “JPMorgan chase is an agency of the US government, rigs the markets, and undertakes market manipulation.” To all our readers: this is yet another “must hear” interview.

From King World News:

In this interview with GATA we continue the saga after just having interviewed Andrew Maguire, the whistleblower out of London. This gives a short and long-term view down the rabbit hole through the eyes of 3 of the GATA board members.  GATA was so heavily involved not only in breaking the news at the CFTC meeting about the the metals manipulation but also at the same time quite possibly uncovering the largest fraud in history. The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee was organized in January 1999 to advocate and undertake litigation against illegal collusion to control the price and supply of gold and related financial securities. The committee arose from essays by Bill Murphy, a financial commentator, and by Chris Powell, a newspaper editor in Connecticut, published at Murphy’s Internet site, lemetropolecafe.com.  In this GATA Roundtable we will have Bill Murphy, Chris Powell and Adrian Douglas.

Link to King World News.